TURNOUT IS THE KEY – AT 8:17 P.M. ET:  Polls are polls, but, as one of the most worn clichés in politics has it, the only poll that counts is the one on election day. 

Everything depends on turnout.  The projections, for our side, look good:

Pew Research Center's final 2010 pre-election survey finds the Republican Party continuing to hold a solid lead in preferences for Tuesday's midterm elections. The poll, conducted Oct. 27-30 among 2,373 registered voters, including 1,809 voters considered the most likely to vote, shows that 48% of likely voters say they will vote for the Republican in their district, compared with 42% who favor the Democratic candidate.

These results suggest little trend in voter opinion nationwide and they track results of a Pew Research Center poll conducted two weeks ago. That survey found the GOP holding a 50%-to-40% lead among likely voters. This is the third consecutive poll since September finding a significant Republican lead among likely voters.

The size and consistency of the probable Republican margin suggests that the party will win a large enough share of the popular vote nationwide to recapture control of the House of Representatives, barring a remarkable last-minute Democratic surge. A party's share of the popular vote and the number of seats it wins has been highly correlated in recent midterm elections.

COMMENT:  Of course, we hope the weather helps us on Tuesday.  Is it sacrilegious to pray for blizzards and locusts in certain coastal areas?  If it is, we'll settle for heavy rain and punishing winds.

By the way, there is a constant undercurrent of concern about voter fraud.  Look for charges of fraud Tuesday night.  The usual suspects are St. Louis and Chicago, but allegations of "irregularities" are already popping up around the country.

October 31, 2010